Barnes County: An Excerpt

The following is an excerpt from the novel I finished revising last summer and will one day get around to submitting to agents.

Terry Stegman did not know that she was about to die. Her heart did pound in her chest harder than she wanted to admit. It was surely due to the speed at which her cruiser traveled the narrow gravel road, gliding just on the surface of the stones. If any animals, a thin little whitetail, a possum, a mangy dog, dared to step into the road they would die. She could not swerve for fear of her own safety. Or, if another vehicle approached from the other direction, just over the next blind hill, the outcome was certain. This danger elevated her heart rate, but it was also likely due to the images of two dead bodies that flashed in her mind.

Terry, Deputy Stegman when she donned the tan uniform, had worked for the Sheriff’s Department for more than ten years and had many occasions to see the dead. Auto accidents were common on the winding black-top highways of Barnes County, Missouri. Elderly who had died alone at home. Farm accidents, men gored by bulls. She had never been early on the scene of a double murder. A young couple, meth-addicts most likely but a young couple just the same, each shot several times and apparently beaten as well. It did not horrify her, nor did it really sadden her. She had her own experience with the sadness of death for perspective. It was the violence of it that left her feeling a little stunned. And here she was, speeding these back roads to the home of the suspect.

At least Bill was right behind her. County Sheriff for what must be twenty years, he had saved her, given her purpose after her husband’s death. He had leaned his long arms across the cattle gate and told her that her sense of justice would make her a natural.

“What makes you say that?” She was lining a trough with sweet grain.

“You want to set things right. You always knew how to keep Bob from going too far.”

“He knew how to conduct business.”

“A powerful man can lose sight of right and wrong. I expect he had some help keeping hold of how things should be done.”

On Sunday mornings Terry and Bob used to have breakfast at a place called Lou’s in the nearest town, the nearest thing that amounted to more than a dot on a map or the crossing of two state highways. It had been a time they set aside to be together, away from the responsibility of the farm, the phone calls from Bob’s lawyer or various realtors. All of that could wait.

They could have been going to church. They probably should have. Around every corner there seemed to be tucked a little white Baptist church, so many in fact that no one likely knew that there wasn’t a one that they’d set a foot in since the day they were married. Asking someone what church they went to was a common question when getting to know someone, right up there with ‘Do you think we’re gonna get some rain?’ A question by itself that irritated Terry because they’d next ask when you thought the rain’d let up. She’d usually answer the church question by saying she’d go to any church that had a preacher worth her respect. To the other question she’d say ‘eventually.’

So It Starts: The first term of the second year of the EMBA program

Thursday I received my box of materials for the next term of the Executive MBA program. One of the luxuries of such a program is that they take care of the books. No waiting in lines. One day before the term starts, there's your books, a couple of binders full of syllabi, assignments, readings, Harvard cases. Of course now I know what's due for that first day of class, so I've got that hanging over me.

One of the peeves I have, after taking many, many classes, is how poorly put together the syllabi are for these classes. They need to teach these professors a class on how to prepare them, or at lease standardize them. Every term it's a big exercise to sort out what each professor means, how things are graded, what's due when, and the like. This is an executive program, full of overachievers, working full-time and trying to get the most out of this that they can. To not have the answer to every question laid out before them gets them (and me) a little anxious.

So, now it starts. The late nights, the heavy workload, the group work, the feeling that every minute should be spent doing something valuable and productive. This term it's "Interpreting the Economic Environment" which translates to Macroeconomics. I'm excited for this one, though I know it's not going to be that easy. I'm sure I'll like it more than others in my class. And the textbook is written by Paul Samuelson, so I'll have to give a lot of credit to what it says. And there's "Managing People in a Global Environment" which is really just human resources class. And the professor for the class also wrote the text for the class.

For now, grab every last second of summer, wrap up all those half-finished projects, clear the desk, and get ready to work

Beware "Grim" Retail Sales Data

It's bad. But it's not that bad. The Commerce Department reported yesterday that retail sales fell 0.1% last month. The figure was a surprise to some because it follows two positive months, and the "cash for clunkers" thing along with a looming recovery were expected to lift sales more. Then when you strip sales of autos and parts, sales dropped 0.6%. This figure should not be surprising given the level of discounting retailers are doing, and the general reluctance by consumers to spend.

Though the WSJ pushes this as "grim data," it is a story about the past, not the future. Beware the negative feedback loop. If a slower sales figure makes us disbelieve a recovery is around the corner, and thus we spend less, then sales will decline again. Consumer spending and consumer confidence will some of the last figures to rise in any recovery. Unemployment will continue to go up though GDP may improve and that will be enough to make people reluctant to spend. There's enough information to say that some segments of the economy may improve quickly, but it would be foolish to bet on a quick recovery. That may be so, but let's not make things worse by getting gloomy over figures that aren't as bad as they seem.

The Meaning and Impact of Cash for Clunkers

With an additional $2 billion being poured into the Cash for Clunkers program, it is easy to define the program as a success. Never mind the fact that there was no foresight into the extent of the demand that depleted the the program's funds in ten days. Even if the program is, on its face, a success, there are plenty of questions about its effect and just what the success might signify.

To me, the number of people who were willing, despite questionable economic times and mounting job losses, to purchase a new car implies a large amount of pent-up demand. People have been holding off purchases because of economic conditions, because of fear, and not necessarily because they can't afford the purchase. Indeed, they are only waiting for signs of stabilization and some strong incentives. Certainly the incentives help, but if there is this much pent-up demand for some thing as expensive as cars, then the demand for other goods is likely to be pretty high. This is a sign to me that recovery could be swift.

Some have said that all the program has done is to pull in sales that would have normally occurred in the next couple of months. And, sure, there is some of that. I think it's more likely that these are sales that should have happened over the last several months. We'll not get back to the normal pace of auto sales for some time, but there are obviously people out there who want to buy cars. With the right incentives, including lower prices, people may again start buying cars and other things like computers or appliances.

Auto dealers have reasons to be happy and sad about cash for clunkers. Without a doubt it is a good thing to have people thinking about buying cars again, even if they don't do it now. Anything that puts buyers on the lot is a good for business. Low inventories because of producer plant shut downs and bankruptcies, may cause some difficulties but it is better than having the opposite problem. It's the back lot at the dealers' that may be the issue. But even if they have the responsibility to disable and scrap these clunkers, it only makes the other used cars on their lots more valuable. They'll find reasons to complain, but the auto dealers (despite the many difficulties of the last several months) have reasons to be happy.

Auto mechanics are also complaining about the program, because people have begun trading in their cars instead of taking them in for repair. I think, though, that taking 200,000 old cars off the road is not likely to have a great impact on the total number of cars rolling into the garage.

What bothers me, as a car guy at heart, is all of the car parts that won't be reused. I've been that guy scouring scrap yards looking for a replacement alternator, radiator, or taillight. I've also known enough people who restore cars and have spent a great deal of energy searching for that elusive part. Now, I doubt that in another twenty years there will be many people looking for a particular piece of chrome on a 1992 F150 or Grand Cherokee, but for every clunker we happily remove from the road a car-ful of useful parts is wasted.

Enough with the Hiatus

Seems like I the took a pretty serious break this summer. Certainly I was well overworked by the first year of the MBA program, and a break was well deserved. And then there was a baby that came right in the middle of everything. Plus I had a family reunion to organize. I did manage to read a slew of books. Those are all things worth doing and kept me very occupied so far this summer, but all the other things I intended to do remain not done.

So it's time to get back on the plan. I'll be writing about business and economics, with the personal essay and book review thrown in. The goal is to give myself strong enough deadlines so that I get something done and we don't go months--let alone weeks--without a post.

Let's see if I can live up to my own expectations.