Kerry Shakeup?

When I heard over the weekend that characters like James Carville were calling for big changes in the Kerry campaign, it was followed by other criticism that the democrats were not all reading for the same talking points. "How could the democrats not all be behind their candidate?" some seemed to be saying. My reaction was different. With Kerry slipping in some polls, with Joe Lockhart already signing on in the last weeks, sure I figured a shake-up is likely. And Carville is on script, setting the stage for a shift.
Today, on CNN's Inside Politics, the talk continues--then it hit me. Let's remember Iowa. Part of how Kerry beat Dean was by coming behind in the polls, by being considered dead and then when things begin to change and he began to improve in the polls, he rode the momentum to victory. I think it's a dangerous strategy, but it's deliberate. First, this is Bush's week. He'll get some movement around the convention, no matter what the Kerry camp might due to stop it. Second, negative campaigning often hurts the one doing it. Look back at Iowa again, Gephardt and Dean traded negative ads and it hurt them both. By staying out of the Swift Boat thing until very late, Kerry made the group and the Bush campaign look a bit nefarious. Kerry didn't have to do some black-and-white ad about Bush's absence in the Texas Air Nat'l Guard.
To predict the future, I would say that we can expect a more coordinated effort out of the Kerry campaign starting Monday. Joe Lockhart did a great job for Clinton and we'll see the effect of his work soon.