Debate One Analysis

I was not watching the debate last night with glee, nor did I jump up and down in celebration at its end. I could not declare a Kerry victory right away. To tell the truth I was very nervous during the whole thing because I've seen how the Bush camp can turn the smallest thing into something significant. Kerry's comments were sometimes convoluted and he failed to summarize most responses into bumper sticker statements. He did manage though to be forceful and direct, which means he avoided being boring and pedantic.

Bush seemed to struggle through most of the debate. He succeeded in hammering the same points he's been using on the road, but this began to become a problem. There's not a lot behind his bumper sticker statements, and when given two minutes to elaborate Bush was often at a loss for words. He also failed to deliver any forceful attacks. We've heard what he has to say about Kerry and their differences for months (mostly because the press reads straight from the RNC talking points), and he had nothing new to say. And I think that's what was frustrating him.
Ironically, what may have hurt Bush most was Fox News's decision to use the split screen. We were then allowed to see Bush's pursed lips, smirks, rolling eyes, and seething anger. He was mad, and I don't think most people would see that as Presidential.

After the debate and thinking and talking about it for awhile, it became obvious that Kerry won, simply because Bush was forced to spend most of the ninety minutes defending himself. Kerry too managed to push his plan for Iraq and Bush was never able to counter with one of his own. He can only say "strong and resolute" so many times before we realize that it doesn't mean a thing. Reviewing the candidate's message last night it boils down to, for Kerry, "we can do better," and for Bush"it's hard work." I think one of these might work better for the American people.

But a Kerry victory last night only means that he's still in the game. Remember that the Bushies are better at controlling the message. The Dems will have to use those keys from last night, those things that had traction, and pound them. If the media begins to think that there's a Kerry comeback starting, that will dominate.